Foreign Affairs Today Journal, March 2008
The recent announcement by Cromwell Oil that it intends to route its export route for Block 77 oil primarily to avoid areas of Discordia - notably the Endor valey - which are occupied by the endangered Dwarf Rhino is potentially very dangerous as regards ethnic sensibilities.
Avoiding the Endor Valley route would also involved avoiding export through Discordia's main port of Beaconsfield where residents hoped for economic regeneration through construction of an oil-export terminal. Beaconsfield was devastated in teh recent civil war and its Kaba majority hoped that oil export would signal a new beginning for Discordia's southern region.
It now looks as if Cromwell is looking at export westwards - and through Discordia's neighbour. This would undoubtedly be welcome to Discordia's Alwi ethnic group, most of whom support the North-West Alliance faction in the interim government.
It's less likely that the Kaba ethnic group, who dominate teh Gangor Delta faction, which also includes Discordia's president, will accept any such solution.
Cromwell are playing with fire when they make such announcements in advance of government agreement - in a worst case their proposals could trigger new ethnic conflict.
Cromwell's stock closed yesterday at 399, its lowest for over a year, reflecting market concern about Cromwell's management of its activities in Discordia.
Cromwell has not decided the route for the pipeline. The first option is through the Endor Valley.
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